Xa iimvula zamaxesha onyaka zifika kamva e-Indonesia, abalimi bahlala beyithatha njengophawu lokuba akufanelekanga ukutyala imali kwizichumiso zezityalo zabo.Ngamanye amaxesha bakhetha ukungatyali izityalo zonyaka kwaphela.Ngokuqhelekileyo, benza isigqibo esifanelekileyo, kuba ukuqala kwexesha lemvula ngokuqhelekileyo kuhambelana nesimo se-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) kunye nemvula eyaneleyo kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Uphando olutsha olupapashwe kwi "IiNgxelo zeSayensi" lubonisa ukuba i-ENSO ngumjikelo we-deformation yemozulu yokufudumala kunye nokupholisa kunye noLwandle lwePasifiki kunye ne-equator, kunye noqikelelo olunamandla ukuya kwiminyaka emibini ngaphambi kokuba umthi we-cocoa uvunwe.
Oku kunokuba ziindaba ezimnandi kumafama amancinci, izazinzulu kunye neshishini letshokholethi yehlabathi.Ukukwazi ukuqikelela ubungakanani besivuno kwangaphambili kunokuchaphazela izigqibo zotyalo-mali lwasefama, kuphuculwe iinkqubo zophando lwezityalo zetropikhi kunye nokunciphisa imingcipheko kunye nokungaqiniseki kwishishini letshokolethi.
Abaphandi bathi indlela efanayo edibanisa ukufundwa koomatshini abaphambili kunye nokuqokelelwa kwedatha yexesha elifutshane kwizithethe zamafama kunye nezivuno nazo zinokusetyenziswa kwezinye izityalo ezixhomekeke kwimvula, kuquka ikofu kunye neminquma.
UThomas Oberthür, umbhali-mbhali kunye nomphuhlisi wezoshishino we-African Plant Nutrition Institute (APNI) e-Morocco, wathi: "Into entsha entsha yolu phando kukuba unokubuyisela ngokufanelekileyo idatha yemozulu kunye nedatha ye-ENSO."“Usebenzisa le ndlela, unokuhlola nantoni na enxulumene ne-ENSO.Izityalo ezinobudlelwane bemveliso.”
Malunga nama-80% omhlaba olimekayo oxhomekeke kwimvula ethe ngqo (ngokuchaseneyo nokunkcenkceshela), ethatha malunga nama-60% emveliso iyonke.Noko ke, kuninzi lwale mimandla, iinkcukacha zokuna kwemvula zimbalwa yaye ziguquguquka kakhulu, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima kwizazinzulu, abaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo nakumaqela amafama ukuba aqhelane nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Kulo cwaningo, abaphandi basebenzise uhlobo lokufunda koomatshini olungadingi iirekhodi zemozulu ezivela kwiifama ze-cocoa zase-Indonesia ezithatha inxaxheba kwisifundo.
Endaweni yoko, bathembele kwidatha yokufakwa kwesichumiso, isivuno, kunye nohlobo lwefama.Bafake le datha kwi-Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) kwaye bafumanisa ukuba isigaba se-ENSO sichaze i-75% yenguqu kwisivuno.
Ngamanye amazwi, kwiimeko ezininzi kuphononongo, ubushushu bolwandle lolwandle lwePasifiki lunokuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo ukuvunwa kweembotyi zekoko.Kwezinye iimeko, kunokwenzeka ukwenza uqikelelo oluchanekileyo kwiinyanga ezingama-25 ngaphambi kokuvuna.
Ukuqala, ngokuqhelekileyo kunokwenzeka ukubhiyozela imodeli enokuthi iqikelele ngokuchanekileyo i-50% utshintsho kwimveliso.Olu hlobo loqikelelo lwexesha elide lokuchaneka kwezivuno zezityalo lunqabile.
Umbhali kunye nomphandi obekekileyo kule mbumba uJames Cock uthe: “Oku kusivumela ukuba songamele iindlela ezahlukeneyo zolawulo efama, ezifana neenkqubo zokuchumisa, kwaye senze ungenelelo olusebenzayo ngokuzithemba okukhulu.“Umbutho weHlabathi weZilwanyana eziNyezo kunye neCIAT."Olu lutshintsho ngokubanzi kuphando lomsebenzi."
UCock, isazi senzululwazi yezityalo, uthe nangona iimvavanyo ezilawulwa ngokungenamkhethe (RCTs) zijongwa njengegolide eqhelekileyo yophando, olu lingo lubiza imali eninzi kwaye ngoko ke alunakwenzeka ekuphuhliseni imimandla yezolimo yetropikhi.Indlela esetyenziswa apha inexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu, ayifuni ingqokelela yamaxabiso axhomileyo erekhodi yemozulu, kwaye inika isikhokelo esiluncedo ngendlela yokulawula ngcono izityalo xa imozulu itshintsha.
Umhlalutyi wedatha kunye nombhali okhokelayo wokufunda uRoss Chapman (Ross Chapman) wachaza ezinye zeenzuzo eziphambili zeendlela zokufunda ngomatshini kwiindlela zokuhlalutya idatha yemveli.
UChapman uthe: “Imodeli ye-BNN yahlukile kumzekelo wokubuyisela umva ngenxa yokuba i-algorithm ithatha izinto eziguquguqukayo (ezifana nobushushu bolwandle kunye nohlobo lwefama) ize ifunde ngokuzenzekelayo’ ukuqaphela impendulo yezinye izinto eziguquguqukayo (ezifana nesivuno sesityalo), ” watsho uChapman.“Inkqubo esisiseko esetyenziswayo ekufundeni iyafana nenkqubo ubuchopho bomntu obufunda ngayo ukubona izinto nezinto ezenzeka kubomi bokwenene.Ngokuchasene noko, imodeli eqhelekileyo ifuna ukubekwa kweliso okwenziwa ngesandla kweenguqu ezahlukeneyo ngokusebenzisa iiequations ezenziwe ngokwenziwa.
Nangona ukungabikho kwedatha yemozulu, ukufundwa komatshini kunokukhokelela ekuqikeleleni kwesivuno esingcono, ukuba iimodeli zokufunda ngomatshini zingasebenza ngokufanelekileyo, izazinzulu (okanye amafama ngokwazo) zisafuna ukuqokelela ngokuchanekileyo ulwazi oluthile lwemveliso kwaye zenze ezi Data zifumaneke ngokulula.
Kwifama yekoko yase-Indonesia kolu phononongo, amafama abe yinxalenye yenkqubo yoqeqesho olugqwesileyo lwenkampani enkulu yetshokolethi.Balandelela amagalelo afana nokufakwa kwesichumiso, babelane ngokukhululekileyo ngale datha ukuze bahlalutywe, kwaye bagcine iirekhodi ezicocekileyo kwiziko le-International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) elicwangcisiweyo lendawo ukuze lisetyenziswe ngabaphandi.
Ukongeza, izazinzulu ngaphambili zahlulahlulwe iifama zazo zibe ngamaqela alishumi afanayo anendawo efanayo kunye neemeko zomhlaba.Abaphandi basebenzise isivuno, ukusetyenziswa kwezichumisi, kunye nedatha yesivuno ukusuka kwi-2013 ukuya kwi-2018 ukwakha imodeli.
Ulwazi olufunyenwe ngabalimi be-cocoa lubanika ukuzithemba kwindlela kunye nexesha lokutyala imali kwizichumisi.Izakhono ze-agronomic ezifunyenwe leli qela lihlehlisiwe linokubakhusela kwilahleko yotyalo-mali, edla ngokwenzeka phantsi kweemeko zemozulu ezimbi.
Ndiyabulela kwintsebenziswano yabo nabaphandi, ulwazi lwabo ngoku lunokwabelwana ngandlel’ ithile nabalimi bezinye izityalo kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi.
UCork uthe: “Ngaphandle kweenzame zomlimi ozinikeleyo i-IPNI kunye nombutho owomeleleyo wenkxaso yamafama i-Community Solutions International, olu phando ngelukwazi.Ugxininise ukubaluleka kwentsebenziswano kwiinkalo ezininzi kunye nokulinganisa iinzame zabachaphazelekayo.Iimfuno ezahlukeneyo.
U-Oberthür we-APNI uthe iimodeli ezinamandla zokuxela kwangaphambili zinokunceda amafama kunye nabaphandi kwaye zikhuthaze intsebenziswano eyongezelelweyo.
U-Obertoor uthe: “Ukuba ungumlimi oqokelela idatha ngaxeshanye, kufuneka ufumane iziphumo ezibonakalayo.”"Lo mzekelo unokubonelela amafama ngolwazi oluluncedo kwaye unokunceda ekukhuthazeni ukuqokelela idatha, kuba amafama aya kubona ukuba benza igalelo, elizisa inzuzo kwifama yabo."

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